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of the plan will take money from the depositors. cyprus has an economy the size of vermont but the assets eight times more than the country's gdp. therein the financial woes come as no surprise to analysts. listen to what alan greenspan said friday. >> europe has been hanging over the american markets for quite a while. the removal of that risk, i think temporarily, i think it is only temporary, has enabled the underlying forces of the market to begin to come into vision. >> and today, the clearer vision that greenspan referred to was clouded the cyprus, we have the report by cyprus matters. >> reporter: cyprus is a smaller island with a smaller economy. but now they're watching what happens in the tiny mediterranean nation. >> it's a tiny nation. the reason we care about it is of course cyprus like it was in greece. it's what it means for the bigger nations if they follow and go down the same bath. >> banking is a huge part of cyprus' economy. and it's a mess. if it fails the country will probably fail, too and the european union will not let the country fail. here's the thing, the bigge
the same bath. >> banking is a huge part of cyprus' economy. and it's a mess. if it fails the country will probably fail, too and the european union will not let the country fail. here's the thing, the biggest payers are the russians. >> they don't want to bail out the depositors because they are mainly russians. that's what the issue is. >> so finance makers said depositors are going be compensated. but with the stock market down some 60 percent those chairs are essentially wortless. >> the blanks are closed and won't open until votes on the bailout measure. people are waiting in lines at atms to withdraw money from their accounts and countries are worried around the world that citizens would take money out of their banks that's why even the most seasoned wall street veterans watching what happens in the tiny island in the mediterranean. for "nightly business report" i'm sue herrera. >> so what does it mean to american investors? we turn to the ceo of pimco the world's largest bond fund. i asked if the situation in cypress is unique or is it a serious issue for the u.s.? >> it is mai
and the growth of the economy, we're still some distance from the high. it is not all that surprising the stock market would rise given that has been increased optimism about the economy and the share of income going to profits has been very high. relationship between stock prices and earnings is not particularly unusual at this point. >> the associated press. mr. chairman, statement mentions fiscal policy has become more restrictive. how much of a drag do you see from the social security tax increase and the across-the-board spending cuts that went into effect on march 1 and is it possible the fed might see a need to provide more support to the economy because of that drag on the fiscal? >> our analysis is fairly comparable to analysis congressional budget office presented to the congress and thestimate put together the fisl measures including the fiscal cliff deal, they sequester and other cuts that federal fiscal restraint in 2013 is cutting something like 1.5 percentage points off of growth to which is very significant. so that is an issue for us. we take as given with the fiscal authoritie
-run, healthy economy. that does have some effect on monetary policy. one of the most powerful tools we have is bringing down mortgage rates and stimulating home buying, construction, and related industries. so that is an issue we take into account. i would say one thing, which is that as the housing industry has strengthened and home prices have gone up, that has actually brought some people into the credit box, in the sense that the number of people, for example, who are underwater on their mortgages, is declining, as house prices go up. so as people have bigger down payments, bigger equity in their homes, they become more creditworthy. so to some extent, not -- i don't want to overstate it, but to some extent, monetary policy, by strengthening the housing market, helping support house prices, is bringing more people into the mortgage market. >> fox business. the stock market has been hitting all-time highs. it's recovered all of its losses from the financial crisis. i just want to know from you if i still have time to get in. but, seriously, how do you feel about that? is it good? is it b
american companies are doing well and the economy is starting to look up, but there's no denying this it rally is in large part fuelled by the fed, which has kept interest rates so low you can't make money anyone other than than the housing and stock markets. to help prop up the down economy, the fed has been pumping money into the system every month in exchange for bonds. that increases the money supply. it drives down interest rates. for awhile now shs the fed's funds rate and other loans that americans use to raise money that be at near zero. the hope is that banks and other lenders will use this cash to lend to consumers and businesses. borrowers will purchase homes and cars or start new businesses and get the economy churning again. it's been working. home prices are rising again due to low mortgage rates. more americans are finding jobs again. it won't stop printing until the unemployment rate dips below 6.5% which means the fed's will be at it until 2015. the flip side to the fed's action is that investors in bonds and interest baring accounts have suffered. it's a low-int
laugh. we'll get his prediction where natural gas prices are headed next. >>> not even a down economy can crush rock and roll. legendar kiss rockers gene simmons and paul stanley kick off a big expan shun of their restaurants. they're here in first on fox interview to tell us why now is the time to bet on the consumer. even when they say it's not it is always about money melissa: first let's turn to today's market moment. fears over cyprus's bailout led to a choppy day of trading on wall street. the dow managed to eke out a slight gain wi the nasdaq and s&p 500 posting minor laws. the s&p fell for thehird straight seson. that is the worst losing streak of the year. microsoft could be in some hot water with the justice department. microsoft and some of its business partners are being investigated over a foreign bribery claims. government officials in china, italy and romania were allegedly bribed to earn software contracts but shares of microsoft still managed to close the day up slightly. >>> all right we start tonight in cyprus. th parliament rejected the tax on bank deposits, potent
to jump-start the economy, not just the stock market. let's go to nicole petallides at new york stock exchange. david: let's start, nicole. we start with fedex it was an extraordinary run-up. it was in the $100 range. it pulls back quite a bit. this is the biggest pullback since 2011? >> certainly is, the biggest pull back since 2011. concerns globally and also going to cut down what they're shipping over it asia. lauren: how is oracle looking ahead of their earnings release, nicole? >> we're watching oracle closely in the tax realm. we'll see whether or not they have earnings. [closing bell rings] david: best buy up another 5%. that stock can not be denied. as you her the bells are ringing on wall street. looks like the indexes are going to keep essentially where they were before and after ben bernanke began to talk. looked like they were sliding a bit. they stopped that slide. trading this the 50 to 60-point range on the dow. the s&p is doing better percentagewise. nasdaq is doing well. russell 2000, small and mid-sized caps doing well. there are interesting company stories and sect
money into the economy? they let us know the exit plan for all of this. melissa: taxpayer outrage, bankrupt city in california paying out a million dollars in pay raises. they are bankrupt. lori: and paying races? crazy town. fedex says more customers are taking a less expensive option and it is hitting the bottom line. melissa: the cyber threat hit by online hackers putting financial firms here on high alert. but first, time for stocks now. nicole petallides is standing by. stocks posted solid gains ahead of the fed decision. nicole: that is right. everybody focused on the fed about an hour away from now. very accommodated if fed, and we're watching a market hitting new all-time highs in the dow jones industrial. of almost 56 points at the moment showing you some names that hit some highs today including nativ united technolo. hitting the highest levels we've ever seen for those names and we cannot leave out verizon. the highest levels we'v we haven in over 11 years. so while the shareholders have been enjoying great dividends, they can now also note multi-year highs as well. as
economist. we're talking extraordinary weakness here, especially in the two most important economies, germany and france. >> yes. what we saw towards the beginning of the year, what we were hoping was we would see in the u.s. in the second quarter and maybe a third number. what these number res sharing, while we're seeing the rate of contraction to ease in the third quarter, around 4.6% declines. what we saw at the end of the quarter, regathering momentum and that puts the usa in a weak position heading into the second quarter. >> i was going to ask, too, the there's any way, these are sentiment surveys. these are not going on out and measuring production. what it does, it oles the companies themselves, asks them about data. pretty reliable whether it's the u.s. version of these or the global ones with tracking equity prices. and the point here is, this is the first reading of sentiment in march. yet it doesn't seem as though this was necessarily nud by the latest out of cypress. this would have all fallen before this happened. >> yeah. it's asking for hard information whether it is
, tyler, all about the federal reserve and the economy. >> and cyprus in there for good measure. it was a very busy news day. we're here to tell you all about it. the federal reserve did it again. says it's going to keep interest rates where they are, near 0%. and it also says it's going to keep up its bond-buying program. the markets like what they heard from the fed along with a pledge from the new head of japan central bank about its own bold, easing measures to be unvailed on thursday. as a result, stocks moved higher here about. the dow touching an all-time intraday high. the blue chips did close 56 higher. nasdaq up by 25 and the s&p 500 rose for the first time in four sessions adding 10 points and taking us to within a few of an all-time high. steve leaseman tells us where we go from here. >> the federal reserve voting 11 to 1 to keep its policy in place and purchasing $85 billion a month in treasury and mortgage-backed securities in an effort to drive down long-term interest rates. but the federal reserve chairman in the press conference after the statement came out, sug
are seeing now is basically trying to achieve a dynamic in the economy that is unsustainable long-term and therefore we come to the detriment of future generations and therefore i am quite concerned that keeping monetary and fiscal policies very loose for an unsustainable long period of time might generate numbers we see now that looks good for current generations but actually come at the expense of future generations. i'm quite concerned in whether we are really trying to counter something that would look at as being typical, but if it is more structural would look to a lot of stimulus at it and undermine the future. i'm quite concerned about that aspect of what we are doing. >> thank you. >> i think you have it right. he spoke of allowing people to have higher living standards, more choices in their lives and a little bit more comfortably. i can't resist taking the opportunity though to disagree with the broad spirits of his last comment. i do not leave the long run can be seated to the avatars of austerity. i am the father or stepfather of six children and on their behalf i am
company with extraordinarily small economy. the fact it would precipitate a run with the greek banks or italian banks and bring down the entire system in europe, fumbling along, kicking the can down the road is really pretty fried and we know from experience these events, whether in the balkins with the shooting of an arch duke or whether in cyprus with the shooting of a banking system can lead to fairly significant consequences for the entire european continent and us. >> so far, the worst-case scenario hasn't happened yet. so far. that's good. let me ask you, steve forbes. do you believe that the united states can make itself immune? are we strong enough economically, and financially, to withstand the kind of worst-case scenario that senator gregg discussed? >> the answer is no. we should have learned that from 2008 when these dominos start to topple. it hits everybody. and this is what is so inexplicable. why did the germans draw the line on this, for sheer domestic political reasons. they don't want to be bailing out russian oil gargs. they have an election this year. they have k
economy. its banks are not highly connected with the rest of the international financial system. there is no risk of contagion here. >> adam, actually, of all the ideas you laid out, which do you think is the least bad of all those solutions? is it going ahead and letting the banks fail? >> that would be my preferred route. failure implies that the banks can't pay their depositors. they are restructuring. they will be very orderly. basically, the banks would be closed for two days. what would come out is when they reopen, the depositors would be the large depositors because the small depositors would be fully protected. the large depositors would be the owners of a bank and they would have deposits of somewhere between 50 1k3 60 or 70% of their money and the rest of the shares in the new bank. the banks would be solvent. the banks could be highly capitalized and they would then have access to the ecb for refinancing to provide any liquidity. >> and the fallout from that would be that the russians -- >> and basically -- >> the fallout for that is that the russians are the ones wh
those economies dramatically, weakens those countries. and it also weakens italy. >> you're saying potential contagion. finally, how does it get resolved? michelle is talking about a good bank/bad bank, nobody pays on deposits up to $100,000. the bailout is 10 billion euros from the european -- ecb. the bail-in is about $6 billion euros. so greece is looking for whatever they're looking for, $4 billion, $5 billion. or does europe bail that out even more? >> the biggest factor of all, dan and i were talking a couple minutes ago, the depositors above 100,000 will lose 40% to 50%. >> those are russians. they're going to be pissed off. >> the great systemic problem of giant bank failures is somewhat eliminated by what they're putting forward now. >> what do you think, dan? does this work? >> for our viewers i don't think it matters. the specifics are super interesting, we're going to go have a drink. what matters to people at home, what matters to the larger story is we decided that people's property in banks was not their own. >> in europe or in the u.s., too? >> in europe only. >> th
part of the economy that's being left at a tivitate now, and where's the exit strategy? >> and i think revenue could be an issue. oracle is out with its third quarter. revenue came at 8.6 billion versus 9.3 billion, an estimate. jon fortt has all the numbers right now. >> let's drill down to some numbers, maria. exactly where oracle missed, because this is a miss. on new license and cloud revenue, the street was looking for 2.57 billion. they came in at $2.3. on hardware product revenue, the street wanted somewhere around $800 million in research. they came in at $671 million. that's well below their guided range on that. and on non-gap operating margin, they came in at 47%, which is right about where the street was looking. they don't give guidance until the call, but this is really important, because they're guiding into their biggest quarter, their fiscal q4. also, larry ellison has said the hardware business was going to have a transition quarter in q3. we should expect to start seeing it growing in q4, given this hardware number, it's going to be especially important for them to b
to give the state all of our resources which would be at least 3 billion euros to help the economy. maybe a little bit of help from heaven. back over to you. >> the archbishop, this is something people should go look up this piece of the story. this is a fascinating piece. he's seen as this spiritual leader there who has been quite vocal. he's been out there talking saying let's get out of the euro and go back to the pound. do we have carolyn? can i briefly ask what it's like on the ground there? we understand that it may be several more days, not just thursday, before people can access their money in cyprus. >> absolutely. initially we know that banks were going to be closed up until tomorrow but at this point there's a lot of speculation that banks will be closed up until tuesday because monday is another bank holiday and at this point it's very, very uncertain that we'll get a viable plan b to get the bailout deal in place at this point it doesn't look like we'll get it by tomorrow. at this point we are expecting that banks are going to be closed for a little bit longer. of course that
this. gallup, fox news, rasmussen, after the economy, the number two concern to the people is the debt. i think there is a growing sense that government spending and government debt at these levels, it does act as a huge drag on the economy. connell: what we have been saying here, unless the interest rates start to go up, you can pull people and they can say whatever they want. their behavior will not change unless you see a spike in interest rates. >> it will be hard to get a spike in interest rates with the fed flooding the system with liquidity. the whole world is on painkillers right now. we have become addicted to liquidity, easy solutions and until the fed start to bring it in and interest rates go up, i do not see a change. dagen: do the people who are still buying taxable debt, you start to see money flowing back into u.s. stock. you see billions every week into world stock. >> i think we are somewhere close to the end of a bond bubble. for the third time in 60 years, we are looking at ten year treasury rates below inflation. that is, obviously, not a way to build over time. we
idea. i mean, if you look at cyprus' economy, there are two major factors to that economy. tourism and financial services. you could kill the financial services immediately right there. so it's two underpinnings. almost like when greece was doing smo of the same things. >> but you say it matters because it could spread elsewhere? >> just the thought that somebody thought this was a good idea is scary enough to me, i would think. but it's going to be one of those things. we'll have to watch and see how it folds out. but i've got a feeling it will have to turn itself around fairly quickly. >> michael, what do you think? have you changed any of your behavior in terms of allocating capital, as a result of what we've seen in the last 48 hours? >> no, not really, maria. i still think that cyprus is certainly something to watch. but i think it's just part of the negotiation process, exactly what's happening in greece. we have to watch and see if it accelerates and this idea sweeps around europe, but i doubt that's going to happen. i actually think that europe is starting to present some o
. connell: highest level close to five years. the economy may be improving. the problem for president obama is his approval rating is not. 47% of americans approving. doug shaw is here to answer that. a record-breaking run last week. you have home production neared the unemployment rate falling. >> first of all, we have dysfunction in washington. we do not have a budget deal. economic growth was tested in the fourth quarter. there is no sign that it is reviving. there really is no revival on main street. connell: is there something politically bad be done? is there something they are not doing right? shouldn't they be better able to take advantage of the perfect stock market and little bit better economic numbers? i think the president is trying to do that now, connell. reaching out to the public senators and paul ryan. we made a deal on the but with newt gingrich. the same thing needs to be done now. dagen: something really struck me. i do not mean to harp on it. the average american wakes up in the morning, you tell me how he feels or she feels that deficit with the daily impact. you kind
and the new fed forecast for the economy. and the stocks we're focused on this morning, blackberry getting an upgrade at morgan stanley and a note titled why it won't go down and it gets into the best buy bull camp, and calling it the best near-term idea in the sector. let's get straight to fedex. the package delivery company says it earned $1.23 a share in the fiscal third quarter and below wall street forecasts. fedex says the customers were choosing slower transit services. this does happen, of course, after a massive run in the transports. >> one of the things that amazes me about fedex is they keep missing and they get loved a few days later. missed and gets loved. it's still regarded as being a profit machine. they have this restructuring that people like very much. people feel it's only a matter of time before someone steps up to the more expensive freight. to me, my charitable trust owns ups. ups has the expectations lower. scott davis always says negative things. >> melissa hit the nail on the head. the stock had a big run and the two guys were going head to head over what was in
earnings cycle. also in this environment the u.s. economy is growing more like 2% and a lot less like 4 in that environment pricing is going to be challenged and the top line sales is not going to be universal for all firms. it will be balance sheet by balance sheet and case by case. security collection becomes far more important. >> i was going to say as you point out the profit growth picture has been pretty good but we are getting at the mature point in that cycle and the forecast is about 1% or 2% overall growth. there are always ways to make more money than the index tracking would lead you to believe. where do you think the pockets of possible better than average profits would be? >> so we do like equities. when you compare that to fixed income certainly in government space so we like equities and we like global equities. it will have to be a multi asset strategy which is kind of all of the above. looking at commodities and debt and equities and looking in companies in europe. there are good companies with strong balance sheets in europe, as well. looking into russia, indonesia, m
times the size of its economy without having some kind of bail structure in a solution, it becomes very difficult. and i think that understanding is quite clear among investors. so from a longer term perspective, i think there's a positive element here which is a more substantial bailin in this solution. >> valentin, what kind of exposure do you have in europe at this point and what changes have you made in regard to how the cypriot levy is handled? >> it is creating a bit of uncertainty. clearly, it comes from lingering uncertainty over the political situation in italy. so all in all, it makes the bit more cautious on europe. not so much on our overall willingness to take risks. we're still overweight global real estate, but we have still put down our exposure in europe, so we are now under weight european equities. we are cautious on peripheral bull markets and european fixed income space. so that is the main changes. still on the regional allocation that we have, but not so much altering our overall willingness to look for risk. i think in general, the broadening of the global cycle
the to and improving global economy. everybody has thought, oh, europe is getting better. and the reason that they have is those credit spreads have gotten better. the european central bank have pushed those credit spreads down. the thesis has been that the global economy is getting better, but it's not getting were the. all of the economies in europe are deteriorating. japan is deteriorating. our market's moving higher because of money printing. once that -- once we get a spillover effect, some sort of a watershed moment in europe, you're going to want to take your assets off the table. >> well, that's a good point, but at this point, eric marshall, do you want to be takingoney off the table now? and if so, where do you put it? >> well, i think the important thing here, you know, stocks have been moving up over the last few months, really in response to improving corporate earnings. so i think you really have to focus on individual company fundamentals. and at the hodges fund, we really see this as the golden age for active portfolio management. you know, over the last few years, investors have really
and that will lead to a decline in the money that is slowing around the economy and that means lower output essentially. so what we're looking at here in cyprus is that the retracted recession is not depression. let's continue with the discussion with professor pisteritus. thank you so much for joining us this morning. just how do you read the deal? did the germans win in the end? >> well, i would have to agree with you that what the germans wanted has happened in the end. it's an incredibly bad deal for the eurozone. cyprus is table because you are taking away from the island more than half its gdp. you're destroying small enterprises and the sector which accounted for 45% of gdp. expect unemployment to shoot up. we are not sure what the next step in this model is going to to be, but what has even wider implications is that the for the first time within the eurozone, depositors had to bail out ailing banks. and that happened in the 1930s. there were bank runs. we introduced deposit insurance. we introduced polling schemes for risk. in europe, we are headed for a banking union next year so
a little bit. >> that's a good point. for a long time the bears have been insisting that the global economy is not as healthy as this teflon stock market in the united states would indicate, and now they've got some ammunition. two companies from fed ex and from caterpillar. now, caterpillar had dismal three-month sales numbers. really shocked a lot of people. fed ex, of course, had disappointing earnings situation, lower than expected international volume. now people are saying, see, we told you. here are who big companies who are saying it's not as big as everybody said. deere got a downgrade from wells fargo. i'll talk more about that in the 2:00. a little bit of good news on housing. keeps rolling along. lenore, 34% increase in building. >> we'll see you back in a few minutes. ty, we'll send it back up to you. >> thank you very much. bob just gave you a very clear shot at the market picture, so what's driving it? well, obviously three developing stories and we're going to cue you in on all of them right now. the fed, steve liesman is in washington. russia's financial overtures toward cy
in macau's economy. 2013 will look good. melco crown and boyd gaming also a standout. "after the bell" starts right now. david: so here's question, when is it tir moyle actually good for the markets and the economy? well, when it is overseas. renowned professor jeremy siegel telling us why the european crisis could be a win for the u.s. and send the markets soaring to 16,000. liz: protesters are a win for us. we'll fund out more from dr. siegel. we know the feeling standing on the corner waiting for the taxis and being surprised how much that meter ran up while you sat there in the car with traffic. a new company hopes to make that aggravation go away by making taxis obsolete. ceo of sidecar is joining us. david: want to hear about that story coming up. we'll tell you what drove today's markets with today's data download. it is a down day on wall street as investors worry what is next for the eurozone. stocks gave up gains on all three major indices, ending the trading day low. industrials and materials led the decline. well the euro extending its losses against the dollar falling mor
than three hours from the federal reserve notes and whether or not it continues stimulating the economy at the current levels, keeps propping things up. why don't you just pick up from where we left off because talking about washington related to the bigger picture scenario not assist early today but the role the federal reserve plays in all of this as long as interest rates stay as low as they are, what do you think? >> the fed plays a big role keeping interest rates low. i heard on the fiscal side, you're right, maybe outside of the beltway the washington fatigue, but returned to the fed, everyday to indicate the fed keeps the pedal to the metal, 85 billion per month, there'll be some talk about scaling it back later this year. the thing to watch is the fed forecast. all the members put in the economic forecast for the next three years. my guess is it'll be a little bit more promising for social and employment rate above 6.5% until 2015 and that is the threshold, they will not move interest rates up before your employment rate gets to that level, that is still at least two years from
insolvent. the banks in cyprus are huge, eight times the size of the economy. consider that here in the united states. our banking system is roughly one-time the size of our economy. what we're waiting to see next are they going to get this through parliament and get it done? it is so controversial they're trying to find out different ways to make it less controversial. impose the tax on larger shareholders to a much greater degree. it was originally 9.9% and you go to 12%. if you didn't want to tax the small guys at all you'd have to go to 15% or 16%. this is the scene when the president walked into the palace headquarters. there were people there with no written on their hand and this says merkel stole our money. keep in mind, european union will still give them 10 billion euros and they were trying to come up to reduce the original size from 17 billion euros. the other thing to keep in mind, by taxing depositors they're taxing a lot of foreigners and a lot of russians who had kept their money. the thing is will the rest of europe, will small depositors across the rest of europ
and howard ward. >> economy is getting better, capital chase returns and stocks continue to trend higher although there's profit taking here and there. >> okay. we'll take that to the bank. the key question about europe. it's all about credit quality. >> who do we have to worry about? >> spanish, italian and greece. >> you're very worried. >> people have to start doing their work. europe never did the work of fixing bank solvency in the first place. >> gentlemen, thank you for being here. >> happy monday. >> that does it for us today. make sure you join us tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >>> welcome to the last week of the first quarter. good morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with melissa lee and jim kraker. futures reflecting the relief of the cyprus deal. a similar picture in europe where the italian tenure is now below where it was before those italian elections and a mixed picture in asia this morning. the nikkei up about 1.5%. the road map begin with the eurozone that did not collapse over the weekend so natura
home building numbers today too. >> that too. we're in a niche market. the u.s. has had their economy outperform other economies and i think it's a flight to safety relative to the u.s. markets on one hand and it's an unwind from the bond market and risk exposure going forward to rate changes on the other hand. so it's both a flight to safety as well as, you know, what's really going on domestically and people are looking at a twist now with the fed and what their posture will be heading forward. >> i'll be back, adobe earnings at the top of the hour. >> take care, maria. >> what do you think? we're finishing positive here. this market doesn't want to go up? you think some of that's short covering? >> i think that's what we're see right now. finishing up the day. right now people will have to play it cautiously. we haven't seen the end of the cyprus thing. we have some negotiating going on from russia. the impact of that, as you mentioned, is a little minor relative to the size and scope of them, but it's whether or not that moves into italy, spain, as we've all been talking about. >>
to the important. they are a leading indicator. they are such an integral part of what moves stuff in the economy. airlines are doing very well, but others are not. fedex, just an example of that. does that trouble you for the market here? >> yeah, it does trouble me. and going forward, we're going to watch those earnings closely, but you need a good transportation sector. we've had a nice little push, but now it seems to be getting a little weak. >> at the end of the day, $100 million for stocks for sale earlier. not a major number, but what are you expecting as we close out this day, down 86 points? does this get worse in the next minute? >> it could get a little worse. all the negative things considered, things aren't bad, down 80, 90 points at the end of the day. >> i'm going to go. we've got some numbers after the close. nike, we're waiting on, second hour of the "closing bell." see you tomorrow. alan, good to talk to you. >> you're skeptical on this rally? >> i am. >> is there a level that you need to get down to and you'll want to get back into this market again? >> you know, it is. it's f
the day. from the economy to earnings now. we get a number of interesting quarterly reports due today as well. before the bell, we'll hear from fedex, general mills and lennar and this afternoon we have oracle. a lot to chew on for the markets. s&p by the way coming off its first three-day decline of 2013. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour. green arrows across the board. and then of course there's cyprus. the country's leaders are holding crisis talks today trying it avert a financial meltdown. the parliament rejected an unprecedented tax on bank deposits. that was a key part of the eu bailout terms. the finance minister is in moscow today with mounting speculation that russia could step in with a safety plan to safeguard russian deposits in cyprus. steve sedgwick is in moscow where he caught up with the finance minister there an hour or so ago. steve? >> they turned to russians once again. there's a loan on the table from russians dating back from 2011 so it's not the exception to it the rule for the cypriots to turn to the russians. the russians themselves are indignan
. let's take a pause to digest all of what's going on. >> there are two economies here. kb homes, lennar, sherwin williams, whirlpool. there is the economy defined by fedex, by caterpillar and this morning by yorele cal. i was on the call last night. the cisco downgrade today. this dichotomy is allowing i think bernanke to not have to taper off. at the same time it calls into question how weak is that international market. seems very weak. >> did we get largely what we wanted from the fed yesterday? there were no big surprises within that. >> no. i think that was the point to not have any big surprises. i think there was a poignant moment yesterday that i think wasn't talked about enough where someone asked imputedly, i felt, because ben bernanke deserves better -- do you know anybody that's unemployed? do you note price of a gallon of milk? he came back, yes, i have a relative on unemployment. he's going to get unemployment down then we'll talk about tapering. until then we are playing a parlor game with the fed. i believe bernanke when he says these things. >> there's no reason to beli
, ceo and president joins me from new york in a fox bids exclusive. you are bullish on the economy. i want to be there, and there's a mixed bag here, unemployment, 7% to 8% range, forecasted for the year. housing, a little bit of a concern here from economists that the housing market is ahead of itself, but, still, bullish on the u.s. economy, so explain that. >> yes, thanks, cheryl. we are bullish on the u.s. economy, housing continues to come back. you saw the numbers today, but, you know, it's still 15, 20, 25%, spending where you are, in the u.s. 30% where it was at its peak. you know, household formation in the last few years has been delayed because of americans deciding to live with their parents, essentially, but population growth continues. bullish on the housing market driving quite of other consumer demand. cheryl: are you changing your asset allocation mix now? is that something you're in the midst of doing, especially on a day like today and yesterday when there seems to be a lot of money moving around, not a lot of new money, but money moving nonetheless. >> we're not ch
ready for the next hour. bill, good to see you. have a great weekend. by the way, does a bad economy bring euphoria to the walking dead? >> i think it does. >> we'll talk to the creator later. >> that would be her zombie walk there, as she moves on to the next hour of the "closing bell". >> do earnings matter or is it still about the fed? >> it seems like earnings mattered yesterday a little bit. i don't think cyprus was the reason we sold out. are they going to matter going forward? i don't think so. not for the next three months. the fed is still the major factor in this. cyprus isn't a factor yet. earnings aren't a factor. the fed has definitely cleared the -- >> it's about liquidity in this market. >> absolutely. i would like to see more liquidity as far as volume goes. you get an 85-point rally off yesterday's sell-off, small volume, not much of a factor. but cyprus will lead the day monday morning in a short week. >> all right. thank you, matt, very much. all right, we've got a market coming back a little bit. needed to be up 92 to be positive for the week. we're ten points awa
to the size of its economy. their banks are almost all entirely deposits. at least the two ones that were failing. most of the other banks in europe have a lot more junior and senior debt. big fat cushions that sit between potential losses and uninsured depositors. so the likelihood of this particular situation happening again? highly unlikely. but you're going to have to be more careful. that's the bottom line. bill? >> michelle, the question we're all wondering about here in the states and i guess around the world is will the cypriot banks will able to open tomorrow as had been expected? >> no. no. they've finally put out a statement and acknowledged what we were all beginning to realize would be true. they cannot. they're going to open up the two troubled banks on thursday, they hope. they claim they're going to open up nontroubled banks as well. that's going to be difficult. remember, banks talk to each other, right? there's all kinds of intrabank business that happens. it's going to be slightly problematic. we'll have to see how that plays out. plus we're going to see if there are ru
stuart: the highlight reel. all about cyprus. cyprus, they'll out approved. >> the economy is likely to get worse. >> continuation of stealing what has already been stolen. they will not be happy. >> they are devastated. that is not what cyprus is or ever was. >> europe does not have the mechanisms in place that the united states has to manage a currency or a banking system. >> watch the euro. that affects all of us. stuart: italian banks have been halted in trading. charles: yes. stuart: why? charles: they are worried. these stocks are plummeting. stuart: the dutch finance minister said the cyprus situation is a good template for other european countries. they have reached into private bank accounts, taken the money out and used it to finance the bailout. that is what everybody wanted to avoid and now the dow is down 43 points. >> that italian banks are frozen because now the fear is they will have their money taken out. stuart: the dutch minister is now staying this could prompt a euro zone bank restructuring. that is why the dow is now down 46 points. you have a 80-point
picture this is going to benefit the country or the economy. >> we're going to repeat this over and over again. nancy pelosi says let's pass it so we can read it. they don't know the definition of a full time employee. all she knows she probably not getting healthcare. >> eric: i'm holding a constitution in the hand which i carry with me. i page through this. i can't find government can require me to purchase something. >> eric, it's unfortunate. the government, it's a fascist government. they can force you to do anything they wanted to do. why we are celebrating something that is horror like obamacare is beyond me. you are talking about a birthday. i tell you what, here is the birthday. you see this cookie, the cookie crumbles. [ laughter ] >> it's not worth anything. they should turn around get rid of it. >> eric: we're laughing but the economy rests on healthcare. 15-17% of the economy, if this fails we're in deep trouble. >> everybody left and right says we have to get the costs under control. look, i'm glad you got a cake here eric because what the folks on the right is help themsel
at home, what do we do about our economy so we don't become a cyprus isn't senate passed its first real bottoming proposal in more than four years. but many americans are worried that lawmakers are kicking the can down the road. the majority say they are slightly less nervous about the economy than they were in 2010. an overwhelming number of us think the number-1 challenge to our economy is the continuing, mounting debt. we have a former media spokesperson for george w. bush and a democratic political consultant to hillary clinton for president. mersaides and richard, welcome to both of you. americans are sick of this. look at the debt clock this. thing keeps whizzing up. the debt is mounting. every sunday, i show this. it has gone up another trillions, it seems, theres and multi-millions. mercedes, how do we stop that in its tracks and make it go the other way? >> we can't stop it when you have the budget plan that senator murray has pushed through. 50 of all, because it has such little support from american voters. for example, we saw a poll saying that only 28% of likely voters sup
of the economy that are not that strong and i don't know what the sequester will bring in the month of april. >> look, the data say things are better, and i think the fed will be under a lot of pressure because interest rates are headed higher. >> at some point the fed will have to acknowledge that -- and they have -- to your point, they changed the language a little bit. it's a moderate recovery and it's a strengthening recovery. words like that. >> right. >> at some point they're going to have to acknowledge what we all seem to know which is -- they're not great, but things are getting better. now will inflation pick up and that, of course, is the fed's number one mandate. will inflation pick up until we see jobs pick up because wage inflation comes with excess demand from workers. i don't know. that's the big trillion dollar question mark. >> commodity inflation whether it be corn or copper and the strong dollar will contain inflation that's going up a great deal. housing is stabilizing and not really in the numbers. i want to take issue with some of what you said. i think we all think th
's on -- you know, it's 0.2% of their economy and, you know, we're worried about whether there's any ripple all the way over to us. >> it may want be an instant market reaction, though. it may be something that's more of a concern about whether there would be other countries that step out of the eu. >> don't you think the markets could anticipate whether there would be further trouble or not? >> i don't know. i think this is -- >> we would be seeing it if it was really -- if they he can't sell off in europe, we shouldn't be looking at it at all for our markets here. >> no. michelle, what's that? >> i know you're over there, but you don't care. >> the one ripple effect i can think of is -- the one ripple effect i can think of is that if when they wind down this bank, there's some wealthy russians or wealthy companies that had money in there that they would lose a substantial portion of, perhaps 50% of the uninsured deposits if they do a wind down. if they have a margin call, you know what i'm saying? some kind of ripple effect maybe related to a russian company or a russian individual. but when
term, do you think this economy improves second half or do you think it slows down? >> i think, as a matter of fact, we're probably in the second quarter. you'll start seeing slow growth. but i think as this summer winds, you know, goes through, we'll start seeing some growth again. i do think that by the end of the year, we're going to be not a lot higher, but i think we'll be at all-time highs as the year goes on. probably the the end of the summer, the third quarter going into the fourth quarter. i'm positive. >> so bill, because the s&p capital iq estimates call for 0.6% growth the first quarter and then it goes up to 7%. so they're expecting profits to actually reaccelerate second half. >> lee munson, you're the only outside guest buying stocks here. what are you buying here? >> you know, i'm just focusing where i need to get some more exposure. i'm focusing first on emerging markets. they've lagged year-to-date. i think they can outperform by december 31st. i like the emerging markets to add more money today. i would also say, add more money to the s&p 500 today. the only
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